Fri Jan 23,
Insights
ICE cotton futures extended losses as traders stayed cautious ahead of the delayed USDA export sales report, while mixed external markets weighed on sentiment.
A weaker US dollar helped limit downside pressure.
The March contract settled in the 63-cent range for the first time since late December, with volatility rising and volumes improving.
ICE cotton futures continued to slide yesterday as traders remained cautious ahead of the upcoming export sales report, which is expected to provide clearer signals on demand prospects. External markets were mixed, which also weighed on the US cotton market. However, a weaker US dollar provided some support and helped limit losses.
The most actively traded March cotton contract eased 0.42 cents to settle at 63.88 cents per pound. The contract marked its first close in the 63-cent range since December 22. The May and July 2026 contracts also fell to their lowest levels since the start of 2026, while other contracts showed mixed movement, ranging from 43 points lower to 14 points higher.
The US dollar weakened during Thursday’s session after tariff threats were withdrawn and the possibility of using force to take Greenland was ruled out. The softer dollar helped ease market anxiety and made dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for buyers holding other currencies.
Total trading volume increased to 61,384 contracts, the highest level recorded over the past six trading sessions. Contracts cleared from the previous trading day totalled 40,577, indicating healthy participation despite falling prices.
Volatility expanded in the March contract, with a daily trading range of 86 points compared with just 29 points in the prior session. Only 20 trading sessions remain before first notice day, scheduled for February 23.
Speculative funds are expected to begin rolling long positions from the March contract into May starting January 29, 2026. The Jim Rogers fund is expected to complete its roll over a three-day period beginning on that date. Goldman Sachs–related funds are scheduled to begin their five-day roll starting February 6.
No fresh cotton-specific fundamental news emerged during the session, and overall price action continued to reflect bear-market behaviour.
CBOT soybean futures edged lower on the day, trading within a volatile range but finding some support from technical buying. Optimism surrounding US soybean export prospects also helped limit downside pressure.
Major US stock indices closed higher for a second consecutive session, supported by improving investor sentiment. The gains followed President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw tariff threats against European allies and data showing resilience in the US economy.
Market analysts noted that no sales or export reports were released during the session and that the dollar was slightly weaker. Due to the Martin Luther King Jr Day federal holiday on Monday, the USDA weekly export sales report has been delayed by one day and will now be released on Friday instead of Thursday.
This morning (Indian Standard Time), ICE cotton for March 2026 was trading at 63.76 cents per pound (down 0.12 cent), cash cotton at 61.63 cents (down 0.42 cent), the May 2026 contract at 65.38 cents (down 0.11 cent), the July 2026 contract at 66.88 cents (down 0.09 cent), the October 2026 contract at 68.31 cents (down 0.02 cent) and the December 2026 contract at 69.00 cents (up 0.03 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded so far today.