Thu, Feb 05,
Insights
ICE cotton remains range-bound as macro headwinds from a stronger US dollar and softer crude offset supply-side discipline.
With the 2025–26 harvest nearly complete and acreage for 2026–27 seen largely flat, near-term volatility is limited.
Market focus now shifts to upcoming US grower surveys and USDA planting data for clearer direction.
Broader commodity sentiment is supportive but cautious.
ICE cotton futures continued to ease yesterday. Stronger US dollar discouraged buying from overseas buyers. Weakness in crude oil also dampened US cotton market sentiment. US cotton crop harvesting for current season 2025-26 is wrapping up. Buyers were cautious ahead of US weekly cotton export report due on Thursday.
The most actively traded March cotton contract fell 0.07 cent to settle at 62.24 cents per pound. May 2026 contracts ended at 63.99 cents per pound, down 0.12 cent. Other contracts closed with mixed trend.
The global cotton market is entering a phase of relative stability as the 2025-26 crop harvest nears completion. Early estimates for the 2026-27 season point to largely flat planted acreage, with only marginal regional shifts.
Current price levels are not encouraging growers to switch to alternative crops, suggesting supply discipline rather than expansion in the near term.
Greater clarity on planting intentions and grower sentiment is expected from upcoming industry milestones. The National Cotton Council’s annual meeting on February 12 will release its grower survey results, offering insights into acreage expectations and cost pressures. This will be followed by the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report on March 31, a key reference point for global fibre markets.
Broader commodity and macroeconomic signals remain supportive but cautious. US equity markets recently closed at an all-time high, driven by stronger manufacturing data, corporate earnings optimism and positive sentiment around the US–India trade deal.
In agricultural markets, soybean prices touched a two-month high after announcements of large-scale Chinese purchases. China is expected to buy around 20 million tonnes this season and 25 million tonnes next season, although traders remain watchful of global supply conditions, particularly the progress of Brazil’s harvest.
This morning (Indian Standard Time), ICE cotton for March 2026 was traded at 62.28 cents per pound (up 0.04 cent), cash cotton at 60.24 cents (up 0.18 cent), the May 2026 contract at 64.01 cents (up 0.02 cent), the July 2026 contract at 65.82 cents (up 0.10 cent), the October 2026 contract at 67.35 cents (down 0.14 cent) and the December 2026 at 68.30 cents (up 0.06 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded so far today.