Fri, Mar 20,
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Insights ICE cotton futures extended losses after weak US export sales data, with the May 2026 contract settling lower despite earlier gains. Buyer sentiment remained cautious, with importers adopting a wait-and-watch approach amid uncertain price direction. Lower certified stocks offered some support, while macro factors and weather outlooks continue to influence market trends. |
ICE cotton futures declined further yesterday following weaker US export sales data, although prices remained relatively higher due to gains in previous sessions. Importers have adopted a wait-and-watch approach amid uncertainty over US cotton price direction.
The most-traded May 2026 contract settled at 67.67 cents per pound, down 1.03 cents (1.50 per cent). The contract has lost 110 points over the last two sessions but still holds a net gain of 253 points since last Thursday. Other contracts also closed lower by 21 to 96 points, indicating broad-based weakness.
Total trading volume stood at 89,599 contracts, with the weekly average at 118,819 contracts. The decline was mainly driven by weak US export sales and shipment data released by the USDA. Net export sales for the current season were reported at 196,700 bales, down 22 per cent week-on-week and 30 per cent below the four-week average.
Market sentiment was further impacted by a cautious approach from importers, with buyers delaying purchases amid uncertain price direction. Analysts noted that buyers are holding back if the recent price rise is seen as temporary.
ICE certified stocks (No. 2 cotton) declined to 115,640 bales as of March 18, offering some support from underlying supply tightness. Despite the pressure, cotton has shown resilience, supported by its role as a hedge against commodity inflation and ongoing supply disruption concerns.
Broader macroeconomic factors, including escalating US–Iran tensions, are influencing energy prices and inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Center reported ongoing La Niña conditions, which are expected to transition to ENSO-neutral next month. El Niño is likely to develop between June and August and persist through the end of 2026, potentially impacting global cotton crop prospects.
This morning (IST), ICE cotton for May 2026 was trading at 68.18 cents per pound (up 0.51 cent). Cash cotton stood at 65.67 cents (down 2.28 cents), the July 2026 contract at 70.12 cents (up 0.51 cent), October 2026 at 71.47 cents (down 0.67 cent), December 2026 at 72.46 cents (up 0.47 cent), and March 2027 at 73.34 cents (up 0.44 cent). Some contracts remained unchanged, with no trading recorded so far today.