Wed, Mar 11,
Insights
USDA's March 2026 WASDE report projects higher global cotton production and ending stocks for the 2025–26 season while slightly lowering consumption, signalling a bearish outlook for the market.
Output is expected to rise mainly due to larger crops in Brazil and China, pushing global stocks higher and raising the stocks-to-use ratio to 64 per cent, indicating ample supply.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected higher production and ending stock of global cotton in its monthly world supply and demand estimates (WASDE) report for March 2026. It has reduced cotton consumption, reflecting bearish scenario in cotton outlook.
According to the WASDE report, the global production forecast is raised over 1.1 million bales to 120.99 million bales for the 2025-26 season. USDA had projected production at 119.86 million bales in the report released in February 2026. The higher production is attributed to increased output in Brazil (larger area) and China (higher yield), partially offset by lower production in Argentina (reduced area).
The world consumption forecast is down 140,000 bales with mill use projected lower in several countries, partially offset by higher consumption in China. The consumption lowered to 118.58 million bales from 118.58 million bales in the last month.
The global cotton trade is increased by 200,000 bales as higher imports by India are partially offset by small reductions for several countries. It increased to 43.91 million bales from 43.71 million bales. The forecast for world ending stocks is raised almost 1.3 million bales to 76.4 million with India and Brazil accounting for much of the increase. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2025-26 is raised by one percentage point from last month to 64 per cent.
There are no changes to the 2025-26 US cotton balance sheet or to prices this month.