Austin Schroeder – Barchart
Fri Jan 17
Soybeans posted a rally ahead of Monday’s inauguration. Contracts were up 10 to 15 cents in the nearbys, with new crop contracts up 3 ½ to 7 ¾ cents. Nearby March was 8 ¾ cents higher since last Friday. CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price is up 14 ¼ cents at $9.74 ¾. Soymeal futures were 20 cents to $2.80/ton higher on the Friday session. Soy Oil futures are 17 to 66 points in the green on the session.
President-elect Trump had a phone conversation with President Xi of China, stating the calls was a very good one for both China and the US. The markets and government will be closed on Monday due to Martin Luther King Jr Day, with a normal schedule for Tuesday.
CFTC Commitment of Traders data indicated spec traders in soybean futures and options flipping to a net long of 34,833 contracts as of January 14. That was a move of 63,445 contracts in that week and the first net long in over a year. Commercials were at a net short of 120,158 contracts, an increase of 66,450 contracts from the week prior.
Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed a bounce back in business following the holiday week to 569,142 MT for 2024/25 soybean sales in the week that ended on 1/9. That brought the marketing year total in commitments to 40.891 MMT, which is now 82% of the USDA export forecast, ahead of the 81% average pace for sales.
Argentina soybean conditions have been slipping, with the excellent conditions down 17% to 32% according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, with poor conditions up 13% to 21%.
Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34, up 15 cents, Nearby Cash was $9.74 3/4, up 14 1/4 cents, May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44 3/4, up 13 1/4 cents, Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.27 3/4, up 7 cents, New Crop Cash was $9.62 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents. (Source: Barchart.com)